In general, now is a good time for shippers to import or export goods at a low cost. However, the international shipping industry, including its experts and analysts, is sending mixed signals about how freight rate markets will behave in the remaining months of 2023.
Analysts Saying ’23 Carrier Profits Down & Shippers’ Savings Up
Many international shipping experts and analysts predict 2023 will have lower freight rates for shippers and lower profits for ocean freight carriers. According to analysts, sharply correcting container shipping markets will result in lower profitability for carriers this year but massive savings in transportation costs for importers and exporters in major markets.
Such forecasts are simple to make a quarter of the way into the year, as cargo levels and freight rates fell in the second half of last year and have continued to fall to this point in 2023. According to various rate indices tracked by the Journal of Commerce, spot rates on the trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe trade lanes were down by up to 90% by the beginning of April compared to last year.
What It All Adds Up to for 2023
It’s now time to make a prediction. We will see an increase in volume during this upcoming peak season. While I don’t expect it to be as strong a peak season as we’ve seen in recent years, which have essentially had a continuous peak season, freight rates will rise some during it, given the increase. According to reports, businesses still need to be overstocked, and economic uncertainty exists.
Shippers continuing to divert cargo to East and Gulf Coast ports should help to mitigate disruptive labor action, even though the economy remains slow. As for next month and the lead-up to peak season, any increases that carriers try to implement will most likely be limited by the increase in capacity hitting the industry, as well as perhaps a bit more competitive spirit from carriers due to alliance uncertainty caused by Maersk and MSC splitting the 2M Alliance.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. What is the freight trend for 2023?
The increasing competition among carriers due to demand contraction due to global inflation is a primary factor in the freight rate reduction trend in 2023.
2. What is the outlook for the freight market in 2023?
Fifty-four percent of respondents to the Freight Rate Survey forecasted a negative outlook for 2023, citing concerns such as high fuel costs and inflation.
3. What is the air freight rate in 2023?
It is around $2.60 to $2.80 per Kilogram. We cannot expect the demand in 2023 to return to the pre-COVID levels.
4. Will freight rates go up in 2023, USA?
As a result, air freight rates will continue to fall faster than sea freight rates.
5. What is the forecast for Maersk 2023?
According to the report, global economic growth will be weak in 2023, hovering around 1.5%, with significant economies entering a recession. Consumer spending will continue to slow, and overconsumption of goods during the pandemic risks a sharp drop in demand.
